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Job Outlook

National Association of Colleges and Employers

    Job Outlook 2009: Special Report

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    College Hiring Flat for Class of 2009

    Data in this special report reflect responses from 146 organizations that had responded to NACE’s Job Outlook Fall Preview Survey in August. At that time, respondents overall reported plans to hire 6 percent more new college graduates from the Class of 2009 than they had actually hired from the Class of 2008. The current poll, conducted October 6 through October 17, 2008, updates those hiring projections.

    Current projected hiring for the Class of 2009 shows very little growth over the hiring levels for the Class of 2008, but no expected decline.

    This projection is based on a recent poll of Job Outlook participants who were asked to re-evaluate the hiring projections they provided in August in light of recent developments that suggest the general economy may be facing a significant downturn.

    As Figure 1 details, employers who participated in both the August and October polls (N = 146) are expecting to decrease their original hiring levels by 1.6 percent. Nevertheless, when compared with the number of actual hires from these firms for the Class of 2008, the expectations for the Class of 2009 are still 1.3 percent ahead of last year’s actuals.

    Figure 1: Hiring projection trends

    Mean

    Median

    Total

    08-09 Projected Hires (October poll)

    141

    30

    19,797

    08-09 Projected Hires (August poll)

    143

    35

    20,117

    07-08 Actual Hires

    139

    30

    19,542

    In the August poll, approximately one-third of respondents said they were re-assessing their projection of college hires downward. Now, among respondents to the current poll, 52 percent of respondents currently project that they will be hiring fewer graduates during the 2009 recruiting season than they hired from the Class of 2008; 34 percent still anticipate hiring more graduates, and 14 percent expect to hire the same as they hired in 2008. (See Figure 2.)

    Figure 2: Change in college hiring expectations
    2008 vs. 2009, by reporting firms

    Number of
    Respondents

    Percent of Respondents

    Change 08-09

    Decrease

    73

    52.1%

    No Change

    19

    13.6%

    Increase

    48

    34.3%

    Total

    140

    100.0%

    The decreased expectation for college hiring that occurred between August and October was broadly felt across industries. Only government as a sector saw a significant increase in hiring expectations, while manufacturing and professional services remain essentially flat during the period of economic turmoil. All other industry categories decreased their hiring expectations for the Class of 2009. (See Figure 3.)

    Figure 3: Percent change in hiring expectations, August to October, by industry

    Industry

    Percent Change

    Agriculture

    -14.2%

    Construction

    -19.6%

    Manufacturing

    0.3%

    Distribution & Utilities

    -17.6%

    Trade

    -7.4%

    Finance & Insurance

    -6.2%

    Business Services

    -3.1%

    Professional Services

    1.7%

    Government

    19.8%

    Updates: NACE will continue to monitor the job outlook for the Class of 2009. The Salary Survey Winter report, scheduled for distribution in late January, will provide a first look at demand for new college graduates by specific discipline.

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